Election offensive

Serbs, then, are on their own. Eighteen Serbian opposition parties have united behind presidential candidate Kostunica, a moderate nationalist law professor who has long headed a small opposition party, the Democratic Party of Serbia. Opposition activists have been encouraged by poll results that show Kostunica ahead of Milosevic by 35 to 23 percent, according to Belgrade's Institute of Social Sciences.

But despite evidence that many Serbs would vote for the changes Kostunica promises, the united opposition is crippled by two things: pervasive cynicism and a lack of unity. About 46 percent of the Serbian public has said they believe that no matter how they vote, Milosevic will somehow engineer a way to stay in power.

Opposition supporters trying to battle that cynicism have been hindered by the refusal of Vuk Draskovic, the leader of Serbia's largest opposition party, the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), to back Kostunica. Instead, Draskovic, who is recovering from a June assassination attempt in the Montenegrin seaside town of Budva, has decided to run a separate "spoiler" presidential candidate from his own party, Belgrade mayor Vojislav Mihailovic.

The move will split the opposition vote, and thus help Milosevic. In addition, Kostunica has refused to allow Draskovic's party to run on joint lists with the united opposition at simultaneous local elections. That means that the opposition is certain to lose local power it gained in two dozen towns across Serbia in 1996. That also means the potential loss of the independent television stations, which the opposition was able to gain hold of via local power.

Another disturbing twist to the election season has been the disappearance of former Serbian president Ivan Stambolic, who went missing last month during his usual morning jog through a Belgrade park. Stambolic, who helped Milosevic rise through the ranks of the Yugoslav Communist Party during the 1980s, was eventually dumped from power in a political move organized by his protigi, making way for Milosevic to become Serbian president.

Most observers in Belgrade believe that Stambolic was kidnapped by members of Milosevic's state security, although it is unclear what political threat the long-retired Stambolic held for the regime. Stambolic has, like some other members of Milosevic's ruling Socialist Party of Serbia, become in recent years critical of Milosevic, although he kept a more discreet profile than other opposition politicians. Some members of the Serbian opposition say Stambolic had been in contact with them about the decision of who to select as the united opposition's presidential candidate, and had even been toying with the idea of running for president himself.

Despite the disappearance and the refusal of SPO to back Kostunica, opposition leaders are trying to overcome voter cynicism with an ingredient rarely found in Serbian politics -- optimism.

At a press conference last week to launch the opposition's campaign, longtime opposition leader Zoran Djindjic used a pointer to outline the dozens of Serbian towns the united opposition will visit in the last weeks before the election. To date, Milosevic has made no campaign appearances.

"Milosevic has never lost any election before," says opposition leader Zarko Korac. "If he ever loses, it would be an important message to his own party."

But Korac adds, "We don't think he'll hand over power. We're not that naive."

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