Saturday, Sep 6, 2008
President Clinton has little time left to improve his standing in history. Could foreign affairs, especially a negotiated peace in the Middle East, offer him a chance for salvation?
Nov 24, 1999 | President Clinton is a man badly in need of a legacy. With only 14 months left in his presidency, he needs to pull off something spectacular soon if he is to succeed in pushing Monica Lewinsky out of the first paragraph of his obituary.
Accordingly, President Clinton has decided to focus his energy on foreign policy, perhaps the only remaining arena where he has any hope of achieving statesman-like stature by century's end. He has just returned from a whistle-stop European tour culminating in a rousing speech in Kosovo. Earlier this month, he delivered a major speech at Georgetown University outlining his ambitious agenda for the remainder of his presidency.
Last year, throughout the impeachment crisis, Clinton appeared off-balance and confused. But whenever one of the unending stream of foreign crises handed him chances to escape his domestic nightmare, he suddenly seemed energized and confident.
During his Georgetown speech, Clinton zeroed in on his top remaining priority, the Middle East peace process: "We have about 100 days to meet the ambitious timetable the leaders of the Middle East have set for themselves to achieve a framework agreement," he said, referring to the proposed trilateral February summit and a September final settlement. Indeed, the Middle East is arguably the only international area in which Clinton has proved an effective mediator, and thus has real hope of being granted a degree of personal credit by historians.
Until recently, an Arab-Israeli settlement seemed impossible. But in this region, run by compelling and distinct personalities, symbolic gestures, both grand and small, count for a lot. Earlier this month, Clinton was in Oslo, ostensibly paying his respects to assassinated Israeli Prime Minister Yitzak Rabin, yet also keeping the increasingly cooperative relationship between Israel and the Palestinian Authority fresh.
A highlight of the Oslo meeting came in the extraordinary image of Yasser Arafat gallantly kissing the hand of Leah Rabin, the slain leader's widow, who in turn urged the leaders present to continue the moral and political imperative of her late husband.
Going forward, veteran mediator Dennis Ross will engage in shuttle diplomacy over the next few months and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright will strive to keep the Syrians onboard, as the Clinton administration tries to maintain the momentum toward peace. Congress has also finally granted funds to aid the implementation of the Wye accord, brokered during the darkest and most hopeless days of the impeachment, which should help.
Therefore, Clinton may be justified in feeling that he is still playing a vital role in the negotiations -- and to hope that the next trilateral get-together on the White House lawn will afford him a good enough photo-op to at least guarantee a shot at a Nobel Peace Prize, as well as a permanent hero's welcome anywhere east of Morocco.
Several emotionally charged issues remain undiscussed to date, however -- and although new Israeli Prime Minster Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority leader Arafat are making good on their promises to maintain a positive atmosphere, Barak has made it clear that he wants the U.S. to scale back its role from architect to facilitator for any future deals. Clinton's goal to be seen as a great statesman hangs in the balance.
Jon Alterman, of the Institute of Peace, has just returned from Oslo and casts doubt upon Clinton's promises of a speedy resolution: "It is fanciful to think all negotiations will be completed within a year -- negotiations will continue for years, if not decades. It may, however, be possible to establish a framework for future negotiations by next September. The only useful role that Clinton can play is a 'closer.' While some in the region may wish that he did nothing but pursue Arab-Israeli peace for the next 12 months, that's simply not going to happen."
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