No place like home?

McCain's home turf political dilemma is a major problem for a man who has represented Arizona in Washington since 1983. Over the past 16 years, he has filled seats once occupied by two of the state's political giants, former House Minority Leader John Rhodes and Sen. Barry Goldwater.

Logically, Arizona's favorite son should win the state's mid-February primary with ease, but recent polls suggest he is in for a colossal, and expensive, battle in his own backyard that could kill off or financially cripple his campaign.

"If McCain loses here, Bush just sticks a silver spike through his heart. He's done," said Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill, whose poll last month showed McCain trailing Bush by 9 points. "Even if he comes out of Arizona, where does he go in terms of money?"

For McCain, the sudden attention being lavished on him in Arizona by Bush, Forbes and even Elizabeth Dole is a natural outgrowth of his rise in New Hampshire and South Carolina, key early primary states.

Bush has apparently already has begun phone bank operations in Arizona, apparently part of efforts to lay the groundwork for a broader statewide operation. Bush reportedly plans to spend as much as $2 million in the GOP-dominated state.

The Texas governor will return to Arizona on Monday -- his second visit in three weeks -- and plans to name an Arizona campaign chairman during a swing that includes a fund-raiser in Tucson and a policy address in a Phoenix suburb. Earlier this month, Arizona Gov. Jane Hull embarrassed McCain by endorsing Bush. Bush is expected to return the favor by selecting Hull's son to spearhead his Arizona operation.

Gordon James, a Bush organizer in Phoenix, said Arizona is "extremely significant" to the Bush campaign. "It sounds far-fetched, but Arizona is on the map," he said. Hull's endorsement of Bush appears to have played a major role in Bush's new-found interest in the state. The governor's defection from the state's favorite son was a big coup for Bush, although McCain's camp downplays its relevance inside the state.

Gordon contends the governor's endorsement was strategically significant, a sign that Arizona is winnable by an outsider. "When it's real logical, it's not necessarily so important," he said. "But in this case, when it's not so logical, it's really important."

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