Coup d'itat: Pakistan gets a new sheriff

The overthrow of Pakistan's publicly elected government may bode poorly for democracy, but who's crying?

By Alicia Montgomery and Daryl Lindsey

Oct 13, 1999 | Gen. Pervez Musharraf's successful military coup in Pakistan Tuesday surprised few of those who have been following the deteriorating situation in the South Asian country recently.

The takeover came after Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif tried to fire Musharraf on Tuesday afternoon and replace him with a former head of military intelligence. Instead, Musharraf ordered his troops to arrest Sharif, close down the Islamabad airport and secure the national media.

Appearing on state television, Musharraf stated: "Despite all my advice, they tried to interfere with the armed forces, the last remaining viable institution in which all of you take so much pride and look up to at all times for stability, unity and integrity of our beloved country."

For the past 10 years, the country has been ineptly ruled by an alternating team of prime ministers -- Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, the latter awaiting trial on corruption charges. During this time, Pakistan's economy has declined drastically.

The downward spiral went out of control last year, after Sharif ordered nuclear weapons testing in what was widely interpreted as a challenge to neighboring India. Serious border disputes between the two countries have flared up anew in recent months, leading to the imposition of sanctions against Pakistan by Western governments. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have temporarily stalled loans that had been keeping Pakistan's sinking economy afloat.

Sharif initially supported a move by Pakistani infiltrators (now widely believed to have been Pakistani soldiers) into the disputed Kargil region of Kashmir last year, then ordered them back to Pakistan under pressure from the White House. The retreat outraged Pakistani military leaders and provided the context for Tuesday's coup.

A number of experts discussed the coup in Pakistan and its implications for regional stability with Salon News.

Howard B. Schaffer is director of studies at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University and former U.S. ambassador to Bangladesh.

The overthrow of Sharif by the military did not come as a surprise.

There [was] an awareness on the part of the army that Sharif had failed in many primary areas of governance and had become unpopular, setting the stage for it to intervene without serious concern about adverse public reaction. Its hand was forced by Sharif himself, who sought to dismiss the army chief -- a move which he had been successful at a year earlier when he dismissed Musharraf's predecessor -- which led to this army reaction. The most serious failure has been on the economic front.

Another failure has been on the law-and-order front. There's been increasing sectarian violence between extreme shia and sunni groups. There have been allegations, which I fully credit, of considerable corruption. There has been tension between the majority state [the Punjab province and home of Sharif] and the four smaller provinces. This is a laundry list of failures.

There has been very little hope that there could be substantial change in any of these areas. Sharif has been unwilling to crack down on those of his supporters who have had their hand in the cookie jar. He's been unwilling to take politically risky measures to improve the revenue situation. He failed at Kargil and he created a foreign policy situation where Pakistan has very few friends in the world.

We don't know much about Musharraf except that he's a professional military officer ... He is considered a secular person -- I'm sure he's a faithful Muslim -- but he is not seen [as some other generals have been] to be inclined to an Islamic view of things. Allegations that he may lead Pakistan to take a more Islamic-oriented policy, especially vis-a-vis the Afghanistan situation, seem ironic when you consider that the guy whom Sharif proposed to replace him [Gen. Khawaja Ziauddin, head of the military intelligence] has been seen to have strong Islamic ties.

It's a blow to U.S. foreign policy. The attitude of the U.S. government toward the Pakistani regime is going to depend on what kind of polity emerges in the next day or so. The Pakistani generals are still consulting among themselves to decide what to do next. The [option] favored by Washington would keep the present parliament in place but remove Sharif and a few figures associated with him. And then create a new, duly elected government comprising parliament but excluding these figures. The second approach, most favored by Pakistani elites, would create a substitute government of technocrats -- senior officials and retired figures -- and have them serve as a caretaker government to clean up the messier elements in the three months leading up to elections. This follows the pattern used earlier in the decade.

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