The decline and fall of the American empire

In existing institutions we'll find ourselves increasingly isolated. One of the reasons that we tend to have as much say as we do is that, for example, in the IMF, the U.S. has a larger share than any other country. But that's because the countries are represented solely by their country representatives. If the E.U. starts coming together with its own single representative, then we will no longer be the dominant country. We're not going to be able to go in and pound our fist on the table anymore.

It's a subtle shift that I'm talking about and that's why most people say, "Oh, it's nothing compared to Osama bin Laden." But, on the other hand, it's the superstructure, it's the guts of the international system, and that's why the stakes are so high.

What issues and conflicts will we diverge on with the E.U.? The Middle East?

That's probably the area where the U.S. and Europe most disagree. It's quite striking if you go to Europe and turn on the TV. The presentation of the Arab-Israeli conflict is so different that you scratch your head and say, "What part of the world are they talking about?" That's part of the problem. We reside in different mind-sets.

The trade and monetary issues will grow more difficult over time if the euro gradually rises. It's a real challenger to the dollar. That's going to make us look like we're back in the 1930s where you had the pound sterling and the dollar together and the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England trying to manage jointly the international economy. It didn't work; the two went off in their own direction. Now it's going to be the Federal Reserve vs. the European Central Bank. If we don't get that relationship right, there could be very serious implications. We are so used to being alone at the top that it's going to be hard for us to get used to that.

Where will England stand in all of this? They're our best friends these days.

The Brits are right now trying to have their cake and eat it too. They're kind of edging into the E.U. but also playing the traditional role of bridge to America. Those days are numbered. It's a strategy that will diminish over time in terms of its utility, but also in terms of its political feasibility. The Brits will change their strategy to trying to change the Franco-German coalition into the Franco-German-British troika. That's because if the Brits don't get into the driver's seat in Europe, they'll be marginalized. My guess is that by 2005 and certainly by the end of the decade, the Brits will be buying their fish and chips with euros and they will be one of the engines behind European integration rather than lagging behind.

When Bush said you're either with us or you're with the terrorists, was he trying to create a new map of the world, one that's black and white and similar to the Cold War bipolar world? It's almost nostalgic for the Cold War. Why would he want to do that, and why can't that work with terrorism?

Part of it may be instrumental. It's a useful talking point for both domestic and international politics. Part of it is sincere -- the Bush people really do believe the world has changed and that it's all about terrorism and either you are against the terrorists or with them.

First of all, that grossly distorts the implications of Sept. 11, in that I don't think the world has changed all that much. Beneath the surface, the same old agenda is still relevant, it's just got one new thing on it: terrorism. If we're terrorism 24/7 we're going to miss all those other issues. We're going to miss the fact that we're alienating the Europeans, we're going to miss the fact that we have a potential environmental disaster looming on the horizon.

The other problem is that terrorism is a very weak reason upon which to build American internationalism. That's partly because it's not the type of threat that -- similar to the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan -- gets us riled up for the long haul. It's elusive. We're in this weird zone where we're being told we're at war but when asked what should we do about it, we're supposed to go shopping and take vacations so that our planes have people on them. It doesn't quite click. Something's not right about this story. Some of the greatest successes in this battle will be the ones we never hear about -- covert operations, the averted attack -- and so in that sense, it's very tough to get this country into a mode of centrist moderate internationalism on terrorism.

I also think -- and this definitely cuts against the grain for now -- that ultimately there will be a counterresponse. Right now, it's, "Let's go get the barbarians," but over time there will be an alternative voice that says, "Let's raise protective barriers, let's get out of some of our overseas commitments." Going back to the founding fathers, we can, because of our location, enjoy a sort of natural security.

Where's that voice going to come from? The left or the right?

It's going to come from all different quadrants. More from the right and the heartland than from the left. I make a point to give talks in Kansas and Texas, Birmingham and Nashville, and there's just a different view of the world there. Even people who are involved in the international economy are not quite as gung ho about the American empire as we hear in Washington today. That's why over time that voice will gain strength. It's important to keep in mind that if you look at how other countries have responded to terrorism or how we have responded, sometimes it does make you pull in your horns. We got out of Lebanon in 1983, we left Aden when the Cole was bombed; Nigerian attacks on the French mainland got the French to leave Algeria. It's not particularly politically correct to say so, but terrorism does engender one to hunker down.

What other alliances might we see? Where does China fit in all this?

In the near term, the main actor is Europe because it has the clout, population and economic weight. It's beginning to have the collective character as the states pass more and more authority up to the supranational authority.

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