California, meanwhile, has been flooded by a wave of recent Latino immigration. According to a recent study by the Pepperdine School of Public Policy, in 1970, Latinos accounted for 14 percent of the Southern California population, 80 percent of which were born in the United States. By 1996, the percentage of Latinos among the total population had jumped to 38 percent, with two-thirds of the Latino population in Southern California foreign-born. Today, fewer than 20 percent of all California Latinos are third generation or older. The California Hispanic community is newer, poorer and less affluent than Latinos in Texas.

But Latinos are acculturating quickly. New figures released by the University of California this week show skyrocketing numbers of Mexican-Americans enrolling in California's public schools. Latinos are also the fastest growing group of new business and first-time home owners in the Los Angeles area, and are intermarrying faster than almost every demographic group in the state.

Fundamentally, Democrats enjoy a solid 30-point registration advantage over Republicans in California. Mike Madrid, who helped produce the California ad with Guerra, estimates the GOP Latino base is somewhere around 20 percent of the overall Hispanic population, while Democrats are solid among roughly 55 percent of all Latinos. "It's that last 25 percent that is in play, and that is who we're targeting," Madrid said.

But an analysis of recent exit-poll numbers reveal those swing Latino voters consistently support Republicans less than the total population. Call it the Latino Sweet 16: Looking at three big-ticket races over the last 16 years shows that California Latinos supported GOP tickets about 16 percent less than the general population. In 1984, Ronald Reagan received roughly 42 percent of the state's Latino vote, and 58 percent of the total vote in California. In 1996, Bob Dole received 21 percent of the Latino vote according to exit polls, and just under 38 percent of the total vote. A similar pattern holds true for GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren, who received just 23 percent of the Latino vote in 1998, and 38.5 percent of the vote total.

So when Republicans say they want 35 percent of the Latino vote as the ultimate goal for George W. Bush in the presidential race, that could translate into an impressive victory. If he can accomplish that (the most recent Los Angeles Times poll has Bush at 21 percent among California Latinos), Republicans are convinced they will take back the White House.

Madrid call the ads "part of the politics of optimism, the politics of possibility; and we think that's going to resonate." If the GOP's soft-sell approach lasts it could be a rarity in today's politics: a positive campaign that works. That is, of course, if Latinos forget recent history.

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