The panel's majority made its strongest statistical case about racially disparate outcomes in its review of Florida's 170,000 spoiled ballots, 107,000 of them "overvotes" where more than one candidate had been selected, and 63,000 "undervotes," the notorious dimpled, hanging or pregnant chad ballots which registered no vote at all.
For this, the panel's majority brought in outside help. Professor Allan Lichtman, chair of American University's department of history and a veteran voting rights lawyer, provided the commission's statistics about the disproportionate effect of voter disenfranchisement on African-Americans. "I came to this as a skeptic," Lichtman said. His aim, Lichtman said, was simply to answer the question "Were there differences in the rate at which ballots were rejected by African-Americans and non-African-Americans?"
Lichtman's answer was a resounding "yes." He concluded that 14.4 percent of the ballots cast by Florida's African-American voters were rejected, compared to a 1.6 percent rejection rate for non-blacks. He reached those conclusions by studying the rejection rates in predominantly black precincts of Dade, Duval and Palm Beach counties, which accounted for 47 percent of bad ballots. While Lichtman refused to say that African-American voters were disenfranchised as a consequence of their race, he did say that "there is a relationship here that is suggestive of a strong relationship between the racial composition of counties and the percent of rejected ballots." At one point, Lichtman suggested that up to 54 percent of all spoiled ballots cast in Florida came from black voters.
Thernstrom wasn't having any of that. "I have serious concerns about your methodology," she said, sparring good-naturedly with Lichtman, a longtime associate whom she spoke of in friendly terms in the hearing. That didn't stop her from slamming Lichtman for failing to study factors other than race, like education and voting experience, that she believed could have resulted in high numbers of faulty ballots. Though he acknowledged that he hadn't studied those factors, Lichtman stood by his assertion that race was the common thread in vote rejection rates.
"I remain dissatisfied," Thernstrom replied. "We'll slug this out later," she said.
And so they did. In remarks after his testimony ended, Lichtman backed off the assertion that 54 percent of bad ballots came from blacks, warning that the figure should be "interpreted cautiously." But he insisted that his conclusions were based on the "best available data." Thernstrom, for her part, dismissed Lichtman's protests that he was an impartial witness, asserting that he was on television "as a regular talking head for Gore" throughout the recount process.
Thernstrom didn't wait to step outside the room to tangle with Berry, however. Berry asked early on that the commissioners "behave toward each other in a spirit of friendliness and collegiality. Do not personalize ... your comments, because this is about policy, not about whether you like somebody or don't like somebody." But that didn't keep Thernstrom from rolling her eyes at statements about racially disparate treatment in Florida, or repeatedly asserting that the report's conclusions were "bewildering," or that the three days the commissioners were given to review the findings were inadequate. When Thernstrom said that the commission had "compromised its integrity," Berry cut her off, telling Thernstrom that "your feelings about the integrity of this commission" were irrelevant.
After the gavel sounded, Thernstrom accused the majority of the commissioners of partisanship, said that they had fatally compromised their moral authority, and said the report "could've been written by [Democratic National Committee Chair] Terry McAuliffe."
Redenbaugh, who had been silent for most of the meeting, called the commission "intellectually bankrupt." When asked what the solution was to the bias she saw in the commission, Thernstrom said she'd plant a bug in the president's ear to clean house. "It's definitely time for new ideas."