Site Presented By
Wednesday, Nov 25, 2009
Bush seeks to woo Europe while violating our hallmark arms control agreement with Russia. Analysts react to the president's speech.
May 2, 2001 | President Bush Tuesday began in earnest the campaign for a new multi-billion dollar international ballistic missile plan, despite continued opposition from foreign leaders who worry about kick-starting another arms race and scientists who claim a missile shield cannot work.
Bush's short speech on Tuesday afternoon gave little new insight into what a plan might look like, with scant specifics regarding the range and capability of the weapons involved, and no estimate of cost or who would end up paying for the system. (Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., said after the speech that he feared the cost could climb as high as $200 billion. Other defense analysts have guessed that Bush's plan would cost $10 billion a year during the research and development phase, with greater cost as it was deployed.)
But the president's focus on modifying or scrapping the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, our 1972 agreement with what was then the Soviet Union, sent a signal to those in the Republican Party who have long argued for a national missile defense -- and against continued treaty talks with Russia. In Tuesday's speech, Bush tried to straddle the line between members of his own party at home who want the treaty done away with, and American allies abroad who want the treaty to remain intact. Choosing his words carefully, the president spoke of "a new framework" for global defense that "move(s) beyond the constraints of the ABM treaty."
The pursuit of a missile defense will have profound consequences on international relations and translate into billions of dollars in defense contracts. Bush insists that missile defense is part of "a search for security, not a search for advantage." He says he plans to reduce our arsenal of nuclear warheads from about 7,000 to a range of 1,500-2,000. But critics say that despite Bush's assurances, scrapping the ABM treaty -- the hallmark agreement on nuclear disarmament -- will lead to a vast new nuclear arms race.
Over the past four months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that he is unhappy with the Bush plans to violate the ABM treaty. Tuesday's speech suggested that this rift between the two leaders will continue, with Russian government spokespersons lodging their complaints to the media, and a handful of Bush administration envoys sent to the capitals of NATO allied countries on Tuesday.
As Bush pointed out, "Today, Russia is not our enemy." In fact, the only state named by the president as an enemy was Iraq. Instead, Bush justified the missile defense plan as a way to protect allies from states that "hate our friends, they hate our values, they hate our democracy," and "for whom terror and blackmail are a way of life."
Now, Bush must sell the plan to our allies. Though Tuesday's speech marks the beginning of the public campaign, the hard sell of a missile defense system to Europe began months ago. From the beginning of the new administration, Bush's advisors have tried to convince European Union leaders to buy in to a system the EU could never afford on its own but one from which it could benefit. In reality, any new system would need an OK from Europe -- particularly from the governments of Britain and Denmark, where we would need to upgrade radar stations.
But many European leaders appear skeptical. Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh said, "We urge President Bush to abstain from the national missile defense, just as we urge China, India and Pakistan to discontinue their nuclear arsenals." British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said, "The important issue is the clear commitment we have seen today to work together with allies and with Russia. We will work closely with the Bush administration as we always do -- as close allies, with common strategic interests." Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Can Bush simultaneously reduce our stockpile of nuclear weapons and pursue a ballistic missile defense? Will Europe be wooed? Salon asked three analysts.
