King Kaufman's Sports Daily

7) Denver Nuggets at 2) San Antonio Spurs
The Nuggets just went nuts after George Karl took over as coach. They'd been 17-25 before he showed up. They immediately started playing better, and then from mid-February to mid-April they went a preposterous 24-2 before cooling off last weekend and losing two straight.

Are they that good? Can they knock off the Spurs, those perennial championship favorites? The answer to these questions are a hearty yes and no. To both.

The Nuggets aren't 24-2 kind of good but they're plenty good. They may have overachieved a little under Karl, but they underperformed more under his predecessors, Jeff Bzdelik and Michael Cooper. Denver has a terrific frontcourt of Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby, plus Nenê off the bench. There are more talented players there than on San Antonio's front line, but San Antonio has Tim Duncan, which more than makes up the difference.

The Spurs also have a better backcourt and a deeper bench. The Spurs' bench is really good, in fact, a bunch of veterans who can come in and score.

Duncan has had a rough year physically, his latest problem being a sore ankle. If he's not healthy, the Nuggets have a chance here, though it should be noted the Spurs are pretty good without Duncan too. He said he's around 75 or 80 percent this week. If he gets anywhere close to 100, Denver's overmatched. The teams split the season series, for what that's worth -- zilch.

Prediction: Spurs in six

6) Sacramento Kings at 3) Seattle SuperSonics
The Sonics, even more than the Suns, were the surprise of the league this year. They started 17-3, but that seems like a long time ago now. Seattle lost six of its last eight and 10 of its last 14, and it enters the playoffs banged up.

Star Ray Allen sat out the season finale, complaining that he's fatigued from playing so many minutes. Rashard Lewis is nursing a sore knee. Vladimir Radmanovic, a 6-10 shooter, has been badly missed since breaking his foot in March. He returned to practice Thursday, proclaimed himself stiff, and is day-to-day. This club's in trouble.

But the Kings have been hurting too. Bobby Jackson had a nice game Wednesday returning from a wrist injury -- while Peja Stojakovic (pulled groin) and Brad Miller (broken leg) watched in street clothes. Stojakovic hopes to play in Game 1. The Kings hope to get Miller back sometime during the series.

The Kings have played well through their injuries, though, and they know how to win in the playoffs, at least in the early rounds. I don't think they're good enough to do much more than beat the Sonics. Seattle won three of four in the regular season, for what that's worth -- diddly.

Prediction: Kings in six

Second round: Spurs over Kings

Conference championship: Mavericks over Spurs

EASTERN CONFERENCE

8) New Jersey Nets at 1) Miami Heat
It comes down to Shaquille O'Neal's leg. If he can bend it, the Heat win. If not, a rare 8-over-1 upset is a real possibility.

The Nets are hot, securing a playoff spot with a 15-4 run to overtake sputtering Cleveland, and the Heat are not, struggling as Shaq has missed a lot of time down the stretch with various ailments.

If Shaq can patch himself together sufficiently, the Heat are going to be a title contender in the East, which is vastly inferior to the West. There are at least three and maybe five Western teams that could handle the heat with a healthy Shaq.

But he and Dwyane Wade are the best tandem in the conference, and not by accident did they win home court by five games. If Shaq's out, or significantly hobbled, the Nets, led by Jason Kidd and Vince Carter, should take them. Good news could be coming for New Jersey Friday, when Richard Jefferson, out since late December with a wrist injury, was scheduled to try practicing.

The Heat won all three games in the regular season, for what that's worth -- bupkis -- including a 35-point drubbing last month.

Prediction: Heat in seven

5) Washington Wizards at 4) Chicago Bulls
At first glance the Bulls look like a lurky kind of team. They finished with a modest 47 wins, but remember they fell on their faces out of the gate, going 2-13. You'll be hearing about how, after that, they went 45-24, meaning that they've been playing on a 55-win pace since early December.

Fifty-five wins is more than the Pistons (54) or Sonics (52) had. The problem is, you can do the same thing by excising a bad 15-game stretch from their schedules too. Drop the first 15 games from the Pistons' season, for example, and they've been on a 60-win pace since since early December.

And consider this about the Bulls: You'll probably hear someone point out that they went 9-4 after center Eddy Curry went out with an irregular heartbeat in March, much better than the 36-33 record they had at the time. But all four of those losses came against playoff teams, all nine wins against teams headed for the lottery.

Compare that to the Nets' season-ending 15-4 run, when they went 8-2 against lottery teams, but also went 7-2 against playoff-bound clubs.

The Wiz have an explosive backcourt in Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes, plus small forward Antawn Jamison. Between Curry and Luol Deng, out for the year with a bad wrist, the Bulls are missing 45 minutes, 28 points and 10 rebounds up front, leaving them with not enough to exploit Washington's weaknesses there. The Wiz won two of three from the Bulls during the regular season, for what that's worth -- squat.

Prediction: Wizards in six

Second round: Heat over Wizards

7) Philadelphia 76ers at 2) Detroit Pistons
If the Heat falter, it'll be the Pistons winning the East again, but these are not last year's Pistons. The bench is not as deep and not as good, and Rasheed Wallace has been bothered by a hamstring, an injury that can nag.

Both teams finished the season playing well, but the Sixers don't have enough beyond Allen Iverson, who had an incredible year. Chris Webber is playing better of late after a bad start in Philly, but he's not what he once was. The Pistons won three out of four in the regular season, for what that's worth -- nix.

Prediction: Pistons in five

6) Indiana Pacers at 3) Boston Celtics
Two interesting teams that aren't going to win the championship.

The Pacers overcame the Brawl and all those suspensions, plus a late-season injury to Jermaine O'Neal. And they have Reggie Miller singing his swan song. The Celtics got a lot better after the whoda-thunk-it trade that brought Antoine Walker back.

This isn't last year's Pacers either, without injured point guard Jamaal Tinsley and the suspended Ron Artest, but they're tough, and they've overcome a lot to get here. They should be able to slow down the Celtics' many and varied offensive weapons, the most dangerous of which is Paul Pierce. The Pacers won two of three in the season series, for what that's worth -- zippo.

A Pacers-Pistons series in the second round looks like a slightly pale version of last year's tilt, but still a pretty good match.

Prediction: Pacers in seven

Second round: Pistons over Pacers

Conference championship: Heat over Pistons

NBA Finals: Mavericks over Heat

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