King Kaufman's Sports Daily

NBA playoff preview: For the Mavericks, "Big D" doesn't just mean Dallas anymore. Plus: Why did ESPN pay so much for "Monday Night Football"?

Read more: Sports, TV, NBA, Basketball, News, Football, NFL, Salon News, King Kaufman, NBA playoffs, Sports Daily

April 22, 2005 | Dallas finally has a chance to win it all.

That's the text of an instant message I sent to a hoops-junkie co-worker on March 19, the day Don Nelson resigned as the Mavericks' head coach. As you may know, I've long said that no team coached by Don Nelson would ever win an NBA title.

Of course, I used to say the same thing about Larry Brown. OK, so I'm not always right, but I'm sticking with this pick: Mavs to go all the way.

Here's a look at the eight series in the first round of the NBA playoffs, known around these parts as the regular season. The number before each team's name is its conference seeding, and the "at" designation refers to the team with the home-court advantage, which is the one with the better record, not necessarily the higher seed.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

8) Memphis Grizzlies at 1) Phoenix Suns
Thank you, Phoenix Suns, for the 2004-05 season. Thanks, Steve Nash, for coming over from Dallas and leading one of the most exciting offenses in years. Thanks, Amare Stoudemire, for being such a general power stud. Thanks, Suns, for leading the league in wins while playing stylish, uptempo basketball. Here's hoping this sort of thing catches on even more than it already has.

That would certainly happen if the Suns were to go all the way. Go, Suns! I hereby root for you even though the Grizzlies are No. 2 in the Complicated Calculus of Teams I Root For, NBA division.

Problem is, to paraphrase Oakland A's general manager Billy Beane's famous quote, the Suns stuff don't work in the playoffs. At least historically speaking. Good defenses, given seven consecutive chances to stop even the best offenses, usually figure it out, at least to some extent. That's why that old saw about defense winning championships is far more true in the NBA than it is in, say, football and baseball, where it's often taken as gospel but is not quite true.

I don't think the Griz have the defense to stop Phoenix, but they're a deep, hard-nosed team that played well after Mike Fratello took over as coach. The Suns, by the way, are not deep, another problem. The teams split the season series, for what that's worth -- nothing -- and the Grizzlies should keep it close, but I think we'll get at least a month more of the Suns show.

Prediction: Suns in six

5) Houston Rockets at 4) Dallas Mavericks
This might be the best series of the entire playoffs, right here in the first round.

Both teams are hot. The Rockets went 27-10 down the stretch and won their last seven in a row. The Mavericks went 16-2 after Avery Johnson took over for Nelson and they ended the season on a nine-game winning streak.

Throw in Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming and the intrastate rivalry thing and, to drop another phrase that for some reason comes to mind, let's get it started.

Johnson said he'd emphasize defense when he took over, and though he says the Mavs aren't there yet defensively, they're certainly somewhere.That 16-2 finish wasn't a mirage. They were 8-1 against playoff-bound teams. They're doing it with defense, having actually become a fairly elite defensive team, but they've also gotten better offensively than they were under Nelson, the offensive coach.

The Rockets are better defensively, but I'm not sure either team has anyone who can stop the other's big scorer, McGrady of Houston and Nowitzki of Dallas, but the Mavs do have Erick Dampier to slow down Yao without a double-team, and that should help with McGrady. A little. The teams split the season for what that's worth -- nada.

Can a team win the NBA title with Jason Terry at point guard? The Mavs are deep and healthy and putting it all together at the right time. I think the answer is yes.

Prediction: Mavericks in seven

Second round: Mavericks over Suns

Next page: Tim Duncan's ankle, the Sonics-Kings medical ward and the East. Plus: Why did ESPN pay so much for "Monday Night Football"?