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Wednesday, Nov 25, 2009
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NFL picks: The power of no information [PERMALINK]
I did my best picking of the year last week, going 11-3 and coming dangerously close to running the table. After Week 5 I claimed that I'd been close to going 14-0, but I was obviously hallucinating. This time, it's true.
The three I blew were two overtime games -- the Panthers beating the Colts, who never got the ball in OT, and the Chiefs beating the Packers, who had coughed up a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter -- and the Eagles' to-the-wire loss to the Cowboys.
So my season record is at 52-36, meaning I'm slinking, Bengals-like, toward respectability. And here's the best part: The Jets' 30-3 medievalizing of the Bills was my second straight winning What the Heck Pick™ of the week, shattering the old record of one in a row, set the week before.
Please hold your applause. I'll let you in on my secret. In the first four weeks of the season, I went 32-28, a .533 winning percentage. In the last two, I'm 20-8, a .714 mark. What's been the difference? The baseball playoffs started, and I've had much less time to pay attention to the NFL. Since I stopped looking at injury reports, trends and tendencies and just started picking off the top of my head, I've gotten much better. Jets over the Bills 30-3: I just had a feeling. You know, I like the Jets' uniforms.
So, unburdened with any useful information of any kind, I give you my Week 7 picks, with winners in all caps.
New Orleans (2-4) at ATLANTA (1-5): OK, I know Mike Vick is still hurt and Kurt Kittner is replacing Insert First Name Johnson, the one who's not Doug but whose name I can never remember. Oh, wait, it is Doug. Damn. Anyway, a vague notion that the Saints are lousy enough for the Vickless Falcons to beat.
PHILADELPHIA (2-3) at N.Y. Giants (2-3): Oh, hang on, I know something about this game too. The Eagles won't onside kick to start it. One of these teams will be toast after this week. I have no idea which one, but I'll say the Giants, and if they lose I'll say I knew it all along.
Denver (5-1) at MINNESOTA (5-0): Injured Jake Plummer takes on a Jimmy Carter-like quality for Broncos fans: The longer he's gone, the better he looks.
SAN DIEGO (0-5) at Cleveland (3-3): There are a lot of What the Heck Pick™ of the week contenders, but I'm going with the Chargers to become the last team to get off the schneid.
BALTIMORE (3-2) at Cincinnati (1-4): This is one of those contenders.
DALLAS (4-1) at Detroit (1-4): Uncle. I give. I'm buying in to the Cowboys, OK? Now watch them lose 48-6. (See what I did there? Whoever wins, I can point to this blurb and say, "See?")
Green Bay (3-3) at ST. LOUIS (3-2): Here's another of my prognosticating secrets: If it's a tossup and a team I root for is involved, I pick against them, so I'll be happy either way. That is, unless I don't do that, like with this game.
TENNESSEE (4-2) at Carolina (5-0): I know the Panthers aren't going to go 16-0, so I'll just keep picking against them and one of these weeks I'll be right.
NEW ENGLAND (4-2) at Miami (4-1): The Patriots never win in Miami, so they're due. Very scientific.
N.Y. Jets (1-4) at HOUSTON (2-3): Good work last week, Jets. Take the day off.
Chicago (1-4) at SEATTLE (4-1): A great What the Heck™ candidate, but I'll have plenty of chances to WTH™ the Bears.
Washington (3-3) at BUFFALO (3-3): I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. The Bills were good to me by losing last week, so I'll take them.
TAMPA BAY (3-2) at San Francisco (2-4): This looked like a great game for prime time when the schedule was made. Now these teams are a combined 5-6. The Bucs are better than their record. The 49ers, not so much.
KANSAS CITY (6-0) at Oakland (2-4): In two weeks the Raiders have gone from the favored team in the first-ever successful What the Heck Pick™, when they lost to the Bears, to being a What the Heck™ candidate themselves, and not a very attractive one at that.
Season record: 52-36
Last week: 11-3
What the Heck Picks™: 2-4, and on a two-game hot streak!
Secret sports columnist tricks revealed: 3
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