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Tuesday, Nov 24, 2009
NFC preview: Only a fool would pick a repeat champ in the NFL. This fool says watch out for the Buccaneers.
Sep 2, 2003 | Pro football prognostication is the easiest game in town. All you have to do is start with a disclaimer that in the NFL, where this year's 5-11 team is next year's Super Bowl champ and vice-versa, trying to predict anything is impossible. Next you point out that the difference between the best teams and the worst (Cincinnati Bengals excepted) is so small that a few injuries, which are impossible to forecast, can change everything.
Then you confidently make your picks, pretending you have a clue what you're talking about, and you only mention them again on the off chance that you're right about something.
So as Thursday night's season-opening game between the New York Jets and the Washington Redskins approaches, I'll begin my NFC preview by reminding you that last year I picked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go to the Super Bowl. And I'll hope you won't notice that in my AFC preview Wednesday, I'm not going to mention who I picked to win that conference.
On Thursday, you'll get your chance to embarrass yourselves, so send me your predictions about who will win each division, the wild card spots, the conference championships and the Super Bowl. (Please put the word "predictions" in the subject line.) We'll compare your picks to mine and to various national "experts," who of course don't know any more than we do. This will also give me a chance to adopt a favorite reader tactic and ridicule your incorrect picks after the season has played out. Fair is fair.
As always, I remain fearlessly alone among the national media in organizing this sort of thing from west to east.
WEST
Seattle Seahawks: The big question is whether quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's dynamite second half last year was a fluke or the real thing, and I'm proud to be able to answer it: I don't know. But even if he falters and loses his job to Trent Dilfer, as he did in 2001, this is a damn good offense, with running back Shaun Alexander and receivers Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. The problem has been the defense, which was awful last year. New coordinator Ray Rhodes and a good bunch of linebackers should mean just enough improvement to not be awful again.
But the key coaching move was head man Mike Holmgren giving up his general manager duties. Why is it that head coach and general manager are the only two full-time jobs anyone ever wants to do simultaneously? No one ever wants to be GM and head trainer, or head coach and chief groundskeeper. Holmgren checking his ego and concentrating on coaching is a good move. Seattle started 1-5 last year, and it seemed like the Hawks were charging hard at the end, though all they did was finish 6-4, winning their last three. And five of those six wins came against non-playoff teams. But even the pretty-good Seahawks of last November and December would be good enough to win this weak division.
St. Louis Rams: Let me get this straight. The key to the Rams' fortunes this year is keeping quarterback Kurt Warner and running back Marshall Faulk healthy. Last year, Warner kept insisting he was healthy. When he played, the Rams were 0-6. When backup Marc Bulger played, they were 6-0. Why is it again that keeping Warner in the lineup is so important? Oh, I see: Because Warner keeps insisting he's healthy.
OK, I get that it's really because the Warner of 1999-2001 was just about unbeatable. Well, the Bart Starr of 1961-63 was pretty tough to beat too. Why not get him? Warner is a banged-up 32-year-old, with three years in the brutal Arena Football League in his past. What's especially banged up is his right hand, and those little bones -- ask any 32-year-old fighter with brittle mitts -- don't really get better. Warner might surprise me, and I hope so because he was a wonder to behold during that three-year run, but I think he's no longer what he was, and it's time to turn this team over to Bulger, which isn't going to happen unless Warner gets good and hurt.
Meanwhile, Faulk is 30, the magic age when running backs' bodies begin to break down in earnest. Oddly, so did mine, which is the only thing I have in common with NFL running backs. The Rams won't start 0-5 again, but I think this team's moment has passed.
San Francisco 49ers: Speaking of moments passing. The 49ers rewarded Steve Mariucci for rebuilding them into a playoff team by firing him. Office politics are a drag, even if it's not your office. Getting the successful, dynamic, young Mariucci out of the way so that they could hire mediocre retread Dennis Erickson is just the kind of move that organizations in chaos make. Throw in quarterback Jeff Garcia's aching back and you have yourself the formula for a losing season.
Arizona Cardinals: You know how it's already almost impossible to picture Thurman Thomas in a Dolphins uniform, or how you pretty much have to be reminded that Tony Dorsett ever played for the Broncos or O.J. Simpson for the 49ers? That's how it's going to be with Emmitt Smith's career-ending stint in the desert. When this franchise concentrates on building a winner instead of just raking in the profits from the NFL's revenue-sharing plan, things will be looking up for football fans in Arizona. And when those fans do look up, they'll see snow.
SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: It's a fool's game and a sucker's bet to pick anyone to repeat in the NFL, but call me a fool and a sucker. I think the Bucs are going to be even better than they were a year ago, when they won the Super Bowl. Remember how last year they were supposed to be a year away, because it would take a year or so for the personnel to catch up to new coach Jon Gruden's offensive system? Remember that? Well, here we are a year later. Ready? Here are your NFC champs.
The offensive line, which was Tampa Bay's, um, weakness last year, has been shored up, though the potential loss of running back Michael Pittman to the pokey might make that an overall wash. The big question will be whether quarterback Brad Johnson can stay healthy. He's serviceable, not special, but there's no backup. The defense lost linebacker Al Singleton and safety Dexter Jackson, but they were hardly the key guys, despite Jackson's Super Bowl MVP award. The Bucs will still be great when they don't have the ball. They'll have a first-place schedule and a target on their backs this year, but they're also the best team in the conference. With the usual NFL caveat about injuries, the only thing that can stop the Buccaneers is if they rest on their laurels. Tough to picture when "Chuckie" is the boss.
New Orleans Saints (wild card): Damn, this is a fun team to watch, even when Kyle Turley, now gone to St. Louis, isn't throwing helmets around. With Joe Horn, Donte' Stallworth and Jerome Parthon receiving and Deuce McAllister running, the Saints can score a whole lot of ways. Inconsistent quarterback Aaron Brooks has looked strong after offseason surgery to fix a rotator cuff that sapped his arm strength last year. The Saints don't need a great quarterback to score, just a good one, and Brooks should be that.
So. The defense. The Saints tried to upgrade by trading for safety Tebucky Jones, signing corner Ashley Ambrose and linebackers Orlando Ruff and Derrick Rodgers, and drafting tackle Johnathan Sullivan. We'll see. They're probably faster than they were last year, when they were the sixth-worst defense in the league. But that secondary is pretty old. Still, even a marginal improvement would make the Saints awfully dangerous, because they're going to score a lot of points. The big issue might be whether New Orleans can avoid the late-season collapse that's become a habit. Last year, 9-4 and in the thick of the playoff picture, they lost to the Vikings, Bengals and Panthers. They're 1-7 in the last quarter of the last two seasons. Another stumble like that and coach Jim Haslett should pack his bags.
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers went 7-9 last year, and given recent history that ought to make them favorites to go the Super Bowl this year. They have a fierce, young defense built around second-year end Julius Peppers, who missed four games because of a drug suspension last year. Which reminds me: Why does the media avoid the word "drugs" so fastidiously? Players always have substance-abuse problems, substance-abuse suspensions. Why is that dumb euphemism so ubiquitous? Julius Peppers was suspended for using something you can buy at the drug store, not the substance store. Players with more serious problems don't have their substance dealer on speed dial.
But I digress because I'm trying to avoid talking about Rodney Peete, the Panthers' starting quarterback and a fine old gentleman. I have a soft spot for Peete because I watched him play shortstop for USC, which I think is kind of cool. This was back when the spitball was legal. Twenty-eight-year-old Jake Delhomme, late of New Orleans, is the quarterback of the future, and -- if I may indulge in an old joke -- always will be. But what the heck: Here's your Super Bowl dark horse.
Atlanta Falcons: This was going to be the team to watch this year, with Mike Vick really coming into his own in his third NFL season. The loss of the NFL's most exciting player to a broken leg in an early preseason game was a crushing blow. Backup Doug Johnson is an OK quarterback, so the Falcons are saying it's not such a tragedy to lose Vick. Yeah, and it wasn't so bad when the Three Stooges lost Curly. It's true that Johnson's not bad -- in the sense that Shemp wasn't bad -- but Vick's running ability and rifle arm make up for a lot of faults on the offensive line. This team's fortunes are tied to the left-hander as much as any team's are to any one player. The good news is Vick might miss as few as four games, but that's still a quarter of the season, and that's a lot in what should be a very tough division. I'm picking the Falcons to finish last in the South, but that would be no shame. And second place wouldn't shock me.
