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Sunday, Nov 8, 2009
When it comes to protecting passenger jets from a terrorist's shoulder-launched missile, the White House is taking a bargain-basement approach.
Jun 10, 2003 | When al-Qaida terrorists in Kenya failed in their effort to shoot down an Israeli charter jet with a shoulder-launched missile last November, airline security experts were relieved, but only briefly. Such an attack had long been expected, and though the missile missed its target that day, the experts urged that the near-miss be regarded as a wakeup call to airlines and governments worldwide.
A little more than six months later, the administration of President George W. Bush is making only a limited commitment to reduce the threat of shoulder-launched missiles, and critics both inside and outside the government say he is putting both passengers and the airline industry at risk.
The administration recently blocked two congressional measures to address the threat, including a comprehensive $9 billion plan to begin outfitting passenger jets with sophisticated anti-missile equipment. Instead, a new report by Bush's Department of Homeland Security says the administration is proposing a timetable in which the study and planning would not be completed until 2005, and the first widespread installation of anti-missile technology would be years away, at best. Only $2 million would be spent in the next few months to assemble staff and data on the risk posed by portable missiles; up to $60 million would be allocated next year to continue the study.
But the threat posed by the lightweight portable missiles -- formally known as "man-portable air defense systems" -- has already been demonstrated in a decade of government research. Today, the administration's less-than-urgent approach to airline security is provoking angry attacks in Congress.
In a letter sent Thursday to Tom Ridge, Bush's secretary of homeland security, Sen. Robert Byrd ripped the administration for its seeming nonchalance. And the West Virginia Democrat reiterated his concerns in an interview with Salon. "When it comes to fighting in distant lands, the administration's attitude is, Spare no expense," he said. "But when it comes to fighting the war on American soil, the administration prefers to shop in bargain basements."
Even within the Defense Department, officials privately acknowledge that further study is not the solution to the problem. "We know what we need to do to solve the problem in commercial aircraft," one official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "All we need is the funding to make it happen."
Airline security experts estimate it will cost $9 billion to $18 billion to equip the nation's passenger fleet with "directed infrared countermeasures systems" that can deflect a missile from its course. The Department of Homeland Security report to Congress called the anti-missile systems "the most promising" technology for protecting airliners. The systems use pulses of light to jam the missiles' guidance systems, a technology effective against the early-generation portable missiles that are most likely to be in the hands of terrorists. The most sophisticated anti-missile systems use lasers to confuse attacking missiles and are just beginning to enter service on military transport aircraft.
The cost is steep -- too steep, analysts say, to be borne by U.S. airlines that are already struggling with nearly $100 billion in debt. But the cost of not making the investment could be even greater. If terrorists shot down even one commercial airliner, they could potentially paralyze traffic in the $300-billion-per-year airline industry, with shockwaves spreading throughout the U.S. economy.
In an investigative report last year, Salon detailed how the commercial jets in the United States -- and the millions of passengers who fly on them -- are at risk from the small, light and easily hidden missile systems. They are relatively easy to fire, and when operated properly, they can bring down a jet at altitudes as high as 10,000 feet. More advanced versions can reach aircraft traveling at over 15,000 feet.
To be sure, there are skeptics who believe that the threat of shoulder-fired missiles is overblown. Steven Brill, the former publisher of Brill's Content and author of the new book "After: How America Confronted the September 12 Era," derides recent congressional moves to protect airlines from them. "It's a stupid policy initiative," Brill told Salon on Monday. A terrorist missile attack on an airliner "could happen tomorrow," he said, "but it is still a stupid initiative." In Brill's opinion, terrorists are more likely to strike at "mass transit, rail, air cargo, and office building ventilation systems." Those, he says, are the places where the government should be spending money to avoid terrorist attacks.
But that is a minority position. Those most familiar with the danger, regardless of political stripe, agree that the missiles pose a significant, immediate threat. Rep. John Mica, a Florida Republican who chairs the House aviation subcommittee, has called the risk "sobering," and at a Washington news conference in March, he said: "We can't afford to not act." A Boeing official privately described the shoulder-launched missiles as "the greatest current threat to the U.S. air transport system." Over the past year, intelligence officials have grown increasingly concerned about the likelihood that al-Qaida has smuggled the launchers into the United States. The FBI in May 2002 issued a remarkable bulletin to local and state law enforcement agencies warning that al-Qaida possessed such missiles and would likely attempt an attack inside the United States.
On Election Day last November, the Transportation Security Administration convened a secret meeting in a secure conference room in Washington to inform a group of airline CEOs of the growing threat posed by the missiles. And just days ago, the Group of Eight industrial powers meeting in Evian, France, issued a sobering message: "We reiterate our deep concern about the threat posed to civil aviation by [the portable missiles], especially in the hands of terrorists or states that harbor them."
